Factors Driving the Return
In late October 2024, Hungary and Slovakia resumed oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline, which crosses Ukrainian territory. This decision highlights the commitment of these countries to secure stable energy supplies amid strained international relations.
Economic Dependence on Russian Oil
Reports indicate that Hungary’s MOL shipped around 300,000 tons of Russian oil in September 2024. Most of this oil reached MOL’s refinery in Slovakia, showing significant reliance on Russian imports. In total, Hungary and Slovakia imported about 850,000 tons of Russian oil that month. Approximately 57% of this went to Slovak refineries, with Tatneft supplying about 48%.
Maintenance and Supply Demands
Lukoil temporarily suspended deliveries during scheduled maintenance at MOL’s refineries. The Danube Refinery in Hungary closed from April to June 2024. The Slovak facility also underwent maintenance during the same period. The unexpected shutdown of the Litvínov Refinery in the Czech Republic due to unexploded ordnance further disrupted supply chains.
After maintenance, demand for crude oil surged as refineries resumed operations. In September and October, the Slovak refinery halted operations for additional maintenance. This pause gave MOL a chance to negotiate continued supplies with Ukraine. The interplay of maintenance schedules and supply demands made Russian oil imports essential for operational continuity.
Geopolitical Risks and Negotiations
Navigating Sanctions and Restrictions
EU sanctions prohibit Russian oil imports, but Hungary and Slovakia received exemptions. However, Ukraine imposed sanctions in June 2024, restricting Lukoil oil transit. This situation prompted MOL to negotiate with Lukoil and Ukrainian authorities. They found a workaround by shifting delivery points from the Hungarian-Ukrainian border to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. This change allowed MOL to bypass Ukraine’s restrictions.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó acknowledged that this arrangement carried significant financial risks. However, he emphasized the necessity of this solution due to Ukraine’s “unfriendly actions” and the lack of support from the European Commission.
A Strategic Energy Path
The return to Russian oil supplies through Druzhba underscores the need for Eastern European countries to secure access to these resources. Hungary and Slovakia show a willingness to leverage all available options to ensure energy stability.
Implications for Europe and Russia
Strengthening Energy Ties
Resumed Russian oil deliveries through Druzhba represent a crucial aspect of Russia’s external economic policy. This move allows Russia to maintain its presence in the European energy market, even under sanctions. For Hungary and Slovakia, these supplies remain vital for energy security, influencing their strategic choices amid political pressures from the West.
Future Challenges
The continuation and potential growth of Russian oil shipments through Druzhba depend on the evolving relationships between Russia, Ukraine, and the EU. Political and economic factors, such as potential sanctions expansion, present significant risks. Nevertheless, the successful navigation of Lukoil’s transit issues indicates Eastern European countries’ readiness to find compromises to secure their energy needs.
Hungary and Slovakia’s decision to resume Russian oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline reflects the balance of energy security, economic dependence, and geopolitical maneuvering. The implications of these choices extend beyond immediate supply needs, potentially reshaping relationships within Europe and influencing broader energy policies.
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