Rising Costs, No Fixed Price
Switzerland agreed in 2021 to buy 36 F-35As to replace its F/A-18C/D Hornets. The contract, signed in 2022, lacked a fixed price. At first, the deal stood at 6.25 billion francs (6.55 billion USD). Today, the cost has already climbed to 7.3 billion francs (9.1 billion USD).
That figure could rise further, as global inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, and production delays hit the defense sector. Swiss taxpayers are left with an open check. A deal presented as efficient and cost-effective now looks fragile.
Tariffs Spark Anger
The financial strain deepens with U.S. tariffs. During Donald Trump’s presidency, Washington imposed an additional 39% tariff on Swiss exports. Watches and coffee, two iconic Swiss products, have been hit hard.
This trade blow has fueled frustration in Bern. Politicians and industry leaders argue that Switzerland pays twice: once with lost export revenue, and again with soaring aircraft costs. Voices calling to cancel the F-35 deal are growing louder.
But a cancellation creates another trap.
The Hornet Deadline
Switzerland’s Air Force relies on 30 F/A-18C/D Hornets. Their service life ends in 2030. If the F-35 contract is canceled, the country must quickly find a replacement.
Without new fighters, Switzerland risks a dangerous gap in air defense. The only option would be extending the Hornets’ service. That extension, projected at 0.8–1 billion francs (1–1.24 billion USD), buys just 5–7 more years. The price equals about 33–41 million USD per aircraft.
This is the first level of the F-35 trap: sunk costs and new bills just to keep the air force flying.
European Alternatives Look Worse
Critics suggest switching to a European jet. Three candidates exist: Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Saab Gripen.
The Rafale’s latest export price, in a Serbian deal, was 225 million euros per aircraft. That is higher than Switzerland’s original F-35 price and nearly the same as its current price of 253 million USD. Worse, Rafale production lines are full. Delivery could take up to nine years, leaving Switzerland exposed.
The Eurofighter is another theoretical option. But no recent export deals exist, and experts believe it would cost as much as the Rafale or F-35. The delivery timeline is also unclear.
The Gripen is cheaper on paper. Thailand’s recent order showed a cost of about 138 million USD per unit, without weapons. Yet the Gripen uses the American F414 engine and other U.S. components. Washington’s approval would be required. And if Switzerland cancels the F-35 contract, that approval may not come. A diplomatic freeze with the United States would likely follow.
Here lies the second layer of the trap: alternative jets cost as much or more, take longer to deliver, and may not even be available.
The Strategic Dilemma
The third layer of the trap is strategic. Switzerland prides itself on neutrality but also depends on international cooperation. Walking away from the F-35 risks damaging relations with Washington, a critical security partner.
Joining a European fighter program could align Switzerland closer to Paris or Berlin. But these projects are plagued with delays and political disputes. For example, the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) may not be operational before 2040. That is far too late.
So Switzerland faces a dilemma:
- Stay with the F-35 and pay more.
- Switch to Europe and risk years without modern fighters.
- Extend the Hornets at high cost, with no long-term solution.
Each path leads to lost money, time, and political capital.
No Simple Exit
When Swiss voters backed the F-35 purchase in a close 2020 referendum, officials promised efficiency and security. Instead, the nation now stares at escalating costs and shrinking options.
The Hornets expire in 2030. The F-35 price rises every month. European jets are expensive and slow to deliver. Gripen needs U.S. approval.
This is Switzerland’s three-layer F-35 trap: nearly a billion lost already, no cheap alternatives ahead, and a countdown to 2030.
A small, neutral country at the heart of Europe is learning a costly lesson. Defense choices are not just about planes. They are about politics, trade, and time — and Switzerland has little of any to spare.
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