Dr. Mehmet Rakipoglu warns of significant risks associated with a potential ground invasion following missile strikes on Hezbollah leaders.
Israel’s military buildup near the Lebanese border suggests a potential ground operation is on the horizon. However, such an operation comes with considerable risks, warns international and security affairs expert Dr. Mehmet Rakipoglu in a statement to Sputnik. His comments follow reports of Israel preparing a ground invasion of southern Lebanon after a series of missile strikes targeting senior Hezbollah commanders, including Hassan Nasrallah.
Dr. Rakipoglu, an assistant professor at Turkiye’s Mardin Artuklu University and director of Turkish Studies at the Istanbul-based Mokha Center for Strategic Studies, notes that in urban warfare, non-state actors like Hezbollah can inflict substantial damage on conventional military forces, making even limited operations fraught with danger. He cautions that Israel could find itself in a scenario akin to its drawn-out conflict in Gaza, risking entanglement in a protracted struggle.
He emphasizes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not fit the mold of a “rational actor,” given his history of aggressive and escalatory policies, complicating the predictability of this situation. If a ground operation takes place, Israel may face significant losses; Hezbollah is a far more formidable adversary than Hamas, both financially and militarily, which could lead to substantial Israeli casualties without effectively neutralizing Hezbollah.
In light of setbacks in Gaza, Israel appears to be striving for a psychological edge by targeting the leadership of resistance groups. According to Dr. Rakipoglu, these strikes, including the assassination of Nasrallah and other high-ranking members of Hezbollah, are aimed at undermining the militia’s strategic capabilities.
However, while Israel may see short-term gains from these actions, they could provoke increased global opposition, particularly in light of violations of international law through attacks on Lebanese territory, Rakipoglu concludes.
