A Major Shift in the Balance of Power
For the first time, several powerful Iranian-backed militias in Iraq are considering laying down their arms. The move is aimed at avoiding a direct confrontation with the United States. According to ten senior militia commanders and Iraqi officials, talks have progressed significantly.
Since taking office, the Trump administration has privately warned Iraq. Either disband the militias, or face possible U.S. airstrikes. These warnings came through diplomatic backchannels and were confirmed by six militia commanders representing major groups.
America’s Firm Stance
The militias under scrutiny include Kataib Hezbollah, Nujabaa, Kataib Sayyed al-Shuhada, and Ansarullah al-Awfiyaa. All are part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of hardline Shi’ite groups. Together, they command an estimated 50,000 fighters and possess advanced weaponry.
The U.S. has been clear. Militias that answer to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, rather than Baghdad, are unacceptable. “These forces must respond to Iraq’s commander-in-chief and not to Iran,” a U.S. State Department statement said.
Pressure from Within and Without
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has taken these warnings seriously. His office is in advanced talks with militia leaders, according to Izzat al-Shahbndar, a senior Shi’ite politician. “The factions are not being stubborn,” he said. “They are fully aware they may be targeted by the U.S.”
Farhad Alaaeldin, Sudani’s foreign affairs adviser, confirmed the government’s goal. Iraq wants all weapons under state control. Dialogue remains the preferred path.
Some militia groups have already made changes. Commanders have left key bases in cities like Mosul and Anbar. Many now frequently change phones, cars, and hideouts, fearing airstrikes.
Iran’s Evolving Role
Iran, the main sponsor of these militias, appears to support the de-escalation. Commanders say Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have given them the green light to act as needed. “Trump is ready to take the war to worse levels,” one Kataib Hezbollah leader said. “We want to avoid such a scenario.”
The shift is also strategic for Tehran. Iran’s regional “Axis of Resistance” has taken several hits recently. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen have all faced severe retaliations from Israel and the U.S. Syria, once another ally, is in political decline.
Uncertain Path Forward
Discussions are underway to convert militias into political parties or integrate them into the national army. However, no final agreement exists. “A disarmament mechanism is still under discussion,” Shahbndar admitted.
Despite uncertainty, this is the first real sign the militias are willing to bend under Western pressure. It marks a significant shift in Iraq’s post-2003 security dynamics. These groups were born in the aftermath of the U.S. invasion and grew with Iranian backing into forces that rivaled Iraq’s own army.
A Fragile Balancing Act
Iraq finds itself in a difficult position. It must balance strategic ties with both the U.S. and Iran. The stakes are high. Militias have already killed U.S. soldiers in drone attacks and launched dozens of missile strikes against American and Israeli targets.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke with Prime Minister Sudani in March. His message was clear: prevent revenge attacks or face consequences.
A Turning Point or Temporary Pause?
While some U.S. officials remain skeptical, others see this as a chance for a new chapter. Past pauses in attacks have not lasted long. But this time, the pressure is more intense—and more coordinated.
“If we do not voluntarily comply, it may be forced upon us,” said Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie, a former adviser to Sudani. For Iraq, disarmament may be the only path to peace and stability.
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