PMF’s Surprising Endorsement
In a significant shift, factions within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have agreed to allow U.S. forces to remain in the country. This marks a departure from their longstanding opposition to American military presence. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani has successfully navigated the complex political landscape to secure this decision.
The PMF, also known as Hashd al-Shaabi, consists of multiple militias, many aligned with Iran. These forces played a key role in defeating ISIS and have since gained substantial influence in Iraq’s security and politics. Their previous stance largely favored expelling U.S. forces, making this recent development unexpected.
Why the U.S. Military Remains in Iraq
U.S. forces returned to Iraq in 2014 to help combat ISIS. Since the terrorist group’s territorial defeat, American troops have shifted to advisory and support roles. They provide intelligence, logistics, and training to Iraq’s security forces, aiming to prevent an ISIS resurgence.
Over the years, U.S. military presence has been controversial. Some Iraqi factions view it as necessary for security, while others see it as an infringement on national sovereignty. The push for a full withdrawal has been strong, particularly among Iran-backed militias. However, al-Sudani has emphasized the need for foreign support in stabilizing Iraq.
Factors Behind the Decision
Several factors influenced the PMF’s change in stance:
- Security Concerns – ISIS remnants still pose a threat. U.S. intelligence and air support remain crucial in counterterrorism operations.
- Regional Stability – Ongoing tensions between Iran and the U.S. create risks for Iraq. Keeping American forces ensures a balance against potential aggression.
- Political Strategy – Al-Sudani seeks to maintain strong ties with both the U.S. and Iran. Supporting a limited American presence helps him manage both relationships.
- Public Perception – While some Iraqis oppose U.S. troops, others prioritize security over political ideology. Al-Sudani’s decision aligns with this pragmatic view.
Implications for Iraq and the Region
This decision carries major consequences for Iraq’s future.
Security and Counterterrorism: Keeping U.S. forces strengthens Iraq’s fight against terrorism. Their intelligence and logistics support enhance Iraq’s military capabilities. However, it also risks making American forces a target for attacks from extremist factions.
Domestic Political Landscape: Al-Sudani’s ability to secure PMF backing boosts his leadership. It demonstrates his capacity to balance Iraq’s internal divisions. However, this move may alienate hardliners who demand a full U.S. withdrawal.
Impact on Iran-Iraq Relations: Iran has consistently pushed for the removal of U.S. troops from the region. This decision might strain Iran-Iraq ties or trigger increased covert operations by Iranian-backed groups.
U.S. Foreign Policy: For Washington, maintaining a presence in Iraq strengthens its influence in the Middle East. It supports U.S. efforts to counterbalance Iran’s regional ambitions. However, the situation remains fragile, and any escalation of hostilities could force a policy shift.
What Comes Next?
While the PMF’s endorsement of al-Sudani’s decision provides temporary stability, Iraq’s political landscape remains fluid. Future developments will depend on regional tensions, domestic protests, and evolving security threats. For now, Iraq continues to walk a fine line between securing its future and navigating external pressures.
