Scientists have issued a warning about the Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano located 300 miles off the Oregon coast. The volcano, which stands over 3,600 feet tall and is submerged half a mile underwater, is showing signs of an impending eruption. Based on current data, researchers predict it could erupt between now and the end of 2025.
The Volcano and Its Activity
The Axial Seamount sits on the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the northeast Pacific, making it the region’s most active underwater volcano. This shield volcano, known for its relatively calm eruptions, provides scientists with unique opportunities to study volcanic activity.
Since late 2023, researchers have observed increasing seismic activity around the volcano, with hundreds of earthquakes per day. Some swarms even exceed 500 earthquakes daily. At the same time, the volcano’s seafloor has been swelling. This growth mirrors the pattern observed before its last eruption in 2015, indicating magma buildup beneath the surface.
William Chadwick, a geophysicist from Oregon State University, noticed these changes in November 2023. The volcano’s inflation rate has reached approximately 10 inches per year and is accelerating, a key sign that pressure is mounting.
Predicting the Eruption
In their most recent study, Chadwick and his team noted that Axial has re-inflated to over 95% of its pre-2015 eruption threshold. The swelling slowed between 2015 and 2023, but activity resumed by late 2023, with both seismicity and inflation increasing steadily.
Researchers have narrowed the potential eruption window to between July 2024 and the end of 2025. These forecasts rely on tools that monitor the volcano in real time, measuring its swelling, tilting, and seismic activity. The advanced warning system offers a rare ability to predict eruptions months in advance, unlike typical predictions limited to a few hours or days.
Chadwick described the 2015 eruption prediction as their greatest forecasting success. The ongoing monitoring of Axial is helping scientists refine methods for forecasting eruptions.
Why Axial’s Eruption Matters
Fortunately, Axial’s eruptions are unlikely to cause widespread damage. Shield volcanoes like Axial do not produce explosive eruptions, and their seismic activity is insufficient to trigger tsunamis or major earthquakes.
However, studying Axial is essential for understanding underwater volcanic systems. It allows researchers to improve their forecasting tools and prepare for more dangerous eruptions elsewhere.
The Larger Context of Underwater Volcanism
Underwater volcanoes, though often out of sight, play a critical role in Earth’s geology. Occasionally, these eruptions can have catastrophic consequences. In January 2022, the eruption of the Hunga volcano in Tonga caused a tsunami that wreaked havoc across the Pacific, resulting in $90 billion in damages.
The research on Axial could help predict similar events in the future. Tools developed for Axial include AI models analyzing earthquake records and devices estimating magma pressure thresholds. These innovations may help scientists forecast eruptions from more hazardous underwater volcanoes.
Learning from Axial
For scientists, the upcoming eruption of Axial Seamount is another opportunity to study the dynamics of undersea volcanic activity. Researchers hope to gain deeper insights into how magma movement triggers eruptions and refine techniques to monitor other volcanic systems.
Although Axial’s eruption poses little threat to coastal communities, its study could save lives by enhancing forecasting capabilities for more volatile volcanoes. For now, researchers continue to track the swelling and rumbling beneath the Pacific, preparing for the moment Axial roars to life once again.
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